NIFTY VIEW on 11/02/2010

NIFTY VIEW on 11/01/2010 4:00 PM

Open 6,112.20, Low 6,106.30, High 6,124.95, Close 6,118.10 Change 6.10
Please note that all wave counts are based on the high low price in this commentary!

The present wave patterns are:

fast amplitude (8%): is undefined!

moderate amplitude (13%): is undefined!

normal amplitude (21%): is undefined!

slow amplitude (34%): is undefined!

NIFTY is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 6,047.03 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 62.85 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 64.57 in the neutral territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 47.36, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 92.53. This value is in the overbought territory.



Weekly Pivot Point Resistance and Support

The first weekly resistance level is at 6,124.45 while the second resistance level at  6,136.90. The first weekly support level is at 6,104.55 while the second support level is at 6,097.10.

Additional information not directly related to Elliott's methodology

Tomorrow's(nov02-2010) projected High: 6,130.85, the projected Low:6,112.20. The top 21-day Bollinger band is at: 6,177.97 while the bottom 21-day Bollinger band is at: 5,951.79.



PRICE AND MOVING AVERAGES :-
NIFTY (6119.4)  has closed above its Short time moving average.
Short time moving average is currently below mid-time, AND below long time moving averages,  and STOPLOSS   6,027.060
The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short-term, and neutral in mid-long term.

BOLLINGER BANDS :-
NIFTY  has closed BELOW upper band by 34.5%.
Bollinger Bands are 7.6% narrower than normal.
The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.
Weighted
CURRENT VALUE FOR THE AVARAGE( 9 ) periods is = 6,066.084
The current value for the RSI15 is   57.300

The RSI, written by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, can be used in several different ways to analyze a chart.
Tops and Bottoms:

The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range.

 BUY/SELL SIGNALS :-
A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area.
The last signal was a SELL 13 period(s) ago.

CHART FORMATIONS :-
The RSI often forms chart patterns (such as head and shoulders or rising wedges) and support/resistance levels that may or may not be visible on the price chart.  Since the analysis of chart patterns/formations is subjective, the automatic interpretator cannot find them.  Please visually inspect the chart and look for such patterns.

Failure Swings (also known as support or resistance penetrations or breakouts):The RSI does not currently show any Failure Swings.

DIVERGENCE :-
The RSI and price are not diverging.
Review of  (NIFTY)
as of 11/02/2010 11:30:00 AM

CURRENT STATISTICS

Close: 6,120.150
Change:    1.500
MACD Value:   35.561
Signal Line:   50.059


The MACD can provide buy/sell indications in three ways, signal line crossovers, overbought/oversold conditions, and divergences.


CROSSOVERS :-

Currently the MACD IS BERAISH since it is trading below its signal line.
The MACD crossed below its signal line 17 period(s) ago.
Since the MACD crossed its moving average, NIFTY's price has increased    0.228
And has ranged from a high of 6,284.100 to a low of 5,937.100

OVER BOUGHT/OVERSOLD :-
The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.

MACD DIVERGENCE :-
There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

ADX DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT:-

Plus directional movement index line (+DI) is currently above minus directional movement index (-DI)
It crossed above 1 bars ago.

Welles Wilder (the author of Directional Movement indicator) suggests buying when the +DI rises above the -DI and selling when the +DI falls below the -DI.

Since the crossover happened just recently, this may be a good opportunity to enter long trade (or close already open short trade (if any)
Wilder, however, suggest to qualify simple +DI/-DI crossover with 'extreme point rule'. When the +DI rises above the -DI, the extreme price is the high price on the day the lines cross. When the +DI falls below the -DI, the extreme price is the low price on the day the lines cross. The extreme point is then used as a trigger point at which you should implement the trade.
Current extreme point value is 6,132.400.Until now this rule is NOT fulfilled, so it is suggested to wait for the confirmation.

TREND STRENGTH :-

The ADX is currently   24.652 and falling.
This suggests that the trend is rather weak or very weak. Important: when trend is weak directional movement system generates signal too frequently and whipsaws can 'eat' all your profits.

THIS COMMENTARY IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY (OR) SELL, USE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

NIFTY 11/02/2010 11:30:00 AM Price: 6121.25\c22  ADX  24.652\c29  +DMI  26.435\c32  -DMI  22.117